This is an a priori unlikely event, where there is no evidence that it will happen and therefore it is a surprise to analysts and the market. Therefore, in order for an event to be called a black swan it must have the following properties: In this way, Taleb seeks to question the economic analyses that are used to predict the future by means of an extrapolation of what has happened in the past, predictions that will sooner or later be confronted by the unexpected appearance of a black swan. The discovery of this type of bird with black feathers was a fact that was considered highly improbable, but it happened and it changed the perception that there had been up until that moment. The creator of this theory is the economist, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who named it so because, until the arrival of the first explorers in Australia in the 17th century, all swans in Europe were thought to be white. The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes, in the field of economics, those events that occur by surprise, which none of the analysts had foreseen or taken into account because, a priori, they were unlikely and which, for good or generally for bad, end up having a huge impact and far-reaching repercussions.
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